* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 53 54 54 55 54 54 52 53 53 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 53 54 54 55 54 54 52 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 53 54 54 53 50 50 50 50 51 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 19 20 15 21 18 15 13 17 18 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 20 14 13 11 5 7 4 12 7 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 220 212 227 237 222 231 229 232 201 216 208 213 221 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 147 150 151 154 153 154 154 152 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 151 155 157 156 154 150 148 147 142 140 138 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 57 57 57 61 60 59 60 59 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 16 13 12 24 17 11 8 -5 -11 -35 -38 200 MB DIV 13 46 47 34 57 48 49 38 65 21 19 26 18 700-850 TADV 9 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 12 14 13 6 0 LAND (KM) 1358 1253 1151 1065 996 802 672 535 276 112 266 306 433 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.9 16.1 17.1 18.0 19.2 20.9 22.3 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 45.1 47.0 49.1 51.1 54.9 58.0 60.8 63.1 65.2 66.9 68.9 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 20 20 19 17 15 13 12 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 39 52 69 73 78 77 73 70 73 65 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 8. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)