* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 51 54 59 62 66 65 64 52 49 44 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 51 54 59 62 66 65 64 52 49 44 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 53 57 65 73 78 81 81 80 77 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 9 4 4 7 11 9 11 14 14 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 2 4 0 1 -5 0 -3 0 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 39 72 111 131 128 145 143 191 205 230 250 235 247 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 159 162 161 164 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 139 141 141 144 148 152 154 156 157 156 152 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 53 49 49 38 43 43 46 53 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 13 11 11 10 11 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 29 25 27 26 32 -4 -22 -32 -22 -28 -22 200 MB DIV 31 28 46 6 2 37 52 42 18 0 21 -7 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 -3 -1 -4 2 1 2 10 9 3 LAND (KM) 177 172 157 156 149 158 191 234 295 362 423 381 316 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 37 41 35 28 31 55 82 96 94 90 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 22. 26. 25. 24. 12. 9. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)