* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962011 09/07/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 47 51 57 56 56 46 44 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 47 51 57 56 56 46 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 48 55 60 65 67 67 65 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 10 5 4 7 11 11 15 15 14 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 2 4 -2 1 -5 -1 -4 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 42 68 109 138 131 145 143 193 207 233 250 232 247 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 159 162 161 164 168 168 168 168 168 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 140 142 141 144 150 154 156 156 157 154 150 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 53 50 49 37 42 43 47 53 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 13 11 11 10 11 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 31 27 30 30 35 -5 -24 -35 -26 -31 -24 200 MB DIV 33 29 47 7 1 37 53 38 15 0 22 -6 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 0 -3 -1 -4 2 2 4 10 10 3 LAND (KM) 171 162 155 172 187 196 229 267 321 387 387 346 284 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 35 38 41 53 62 75 89 86 74 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 21. 27. 26. 26. 16. 14. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962011 INVEST 09/07/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962011 INVEST 09/07/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962011 INVEST 09/07/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)