* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 66 67 71 71 69 64 53 44 35 32 V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 66 67 71 71 69 64 53 44 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 70 68 67 67 67 68 70 66 59 51 44 42 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 8 4 5 10 19 39 59 62 57 48 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 3 5 3 7 7 9 12 17 4 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 313 312 307 262 256 225 216 228 238 229 221 228 N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.2 24.6 20.2 20.3 15.1 13.4 12.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 134 130 128 130 109 88 89 77 74 73 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 116 113 111 115 101 84 84 74 71 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -49.9 -49.7 -48.0 -46.9 -46.8 -47.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 8 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 59 62 60 58 62 51 41 38 48 53 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 29 32 31 29 31 35 35 37 40 39 37 33 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 16 4 -5 -14 36 159 189 218 271 254 N/A 200 MB DIV 57 31 43 31 43 84 84 53 48 55 56 47 N/A 700-850 TADV 11 22 22 14 18 4 -13 -52 -16 -52 -76 -7 N/A LAND (KM) 794 694 602 576 581 498 494 423 952 1396 797 400 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.9 35.2 38.0 40.4 43.0 46.3 50.4 55.5 58.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.2 70.4 70.0 69.5 67.1 61.2 51.8 40.4 30.2 22.1 12.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 21 32 41 41 37 33 31 N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 10 18 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 5. 8. 6. 4. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. 1. 1. -1. -6. -17. -26. -35. -38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/08/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 3( 10) 4( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)