* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 43 45 49 51 53 56 60 63 63 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 43 45 49 51 53 56 60 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 40 41 42 44 47 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 24 21 20 13 20 14 17 17 20 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 13 11 9 6 4 0 7 4 1 -6 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 220 231 238 232 234 247 260 228 232 249 238 233 250 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 149 150 150 154 154 154 154 154 151 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 158 158 156 154 159 154 148 147 148 140 130 130 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 56 55 56 59 57 56 55 55 54 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 15 16 15 16 18 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 13 15 23 25 24 5 0 -15 -20 -29 -16 200 MB DIV 54 50 43 49 45 59 59 50 40 11 24 59 54 700-850 TADV -3 -3 1 -2 -4 2 3 12 10 16 7 0 6 LAND (KM) 1225 1117 1050 1009 916 669 575 297 145 266 390 535 629 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.4 16.8 18.0 19.2 20.9 23.2 24.6 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 47.5 49.8 51.7 53.6 57.0 60.5 62.9 64.7 66.8 69.6 70.5 70.0 STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 21 19 18 18 15 12 12 15 13 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 42 57 68 66 82 77 70 69 73 67 39 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/08/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)