* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/08/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 50 55 59 64 59 56 45 42 38 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 50 55 59 64 59 56 45 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 60 67 72 74 73 70 66 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 7 10 8 17 20 17 17 14 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 3 0 -1 -3 -8 0 -1 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 77 83 93 119 144 133 191 224 218 244 227 229 216 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.3 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 161 162 167 169 169 168 168 168 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 140 140 141 147 156 160 161 158 154 150 145 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 7 4 6 3 7 4 7 3 9 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 49 49 43 43 42 44 46 58 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 14 15 15 14 17 13 12 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 29 34 35 30 12 -20 -24 -36 -33 -46 -65 200 MB DIV 26 42 5 4 17 49 32 15 17 24 4 -18 -16 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -3 -5 -3 0 0 7 7 7 8 7 LAND (KM) 200 194 177 179 181 231 290 369 359 306 214 143 71 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.9 21.7 22.5 23.1 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 92.4 92.2 92.2 92.2 92.6 93.0 93.5 94.1 94.8 95.7 96.4 97.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 2 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 39 41 42 48 64 69 80 62 63 78 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. -2. -3. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 19. 24. 19. 16. 5. 2. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/08/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/08/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/08/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)