* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 78 76 79 75 71 64 52 42 31 29 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 78 76 79 75 71 64 52 42 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 80 82 82 81 80 80 76 65 57 49 45 45 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 7 8 11 18 25 57 66 55 41 44 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 2 0 5 13 9 12 3 1 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 305 312 293 257 220 194 229 230 234 219 224 234 N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 26.8 23.4 18.1 16.5 13.6 13.2 12.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 130 128 129 127 102 83 79 74 72 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 112 111 112 116 97 79 76 71 69 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.0 -50.6 -48.8 -47.7 -47.0 -47.8 -47.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 60 61 64 57 48 39 45 44 57 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 29 29 32 29 36 36 39 44 39 36 31 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 16 -2 -9 -11 93 163 198 243 262 234 N/A 200 MB DIV 25 41 39 34 29 95 70 58 30 52 34 26 N/A 700-850 TADV 17 24 20 20 11 -11 -38 -131 -89 -127 -1 9 N/A LAND (KM) 691 618 570 603 575 483 537 575 1314 1045 642 322 N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.7 33.9 35.3 36.6 39.2 41.7 44.8 48.7 52.8 57.1 59.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.2 70.1 70.0 69.3 68.5 64.6 56.6 46.2 35.1 25.7 18.5 10.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 15 17 27 37 42 39 33 27 24 N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 16 9 11 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -18. -25. -30. -34. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. 0. -2. 2. 2. 4. 8. 4. 1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -1. -5. -9. -16. -28. -38. -49. -51. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/08/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 7( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)