* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/08/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 44 49 50 52 50 53 55 60 63 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 44 49 50 52 50 53 55 60 63 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 42 41 41 42 42 42 44 48 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 21 22 20 20 9 15 18 22 13 12 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 12 8 5 2 5 5 3 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 223 229 227 223 239 265 261 230 234 233 247 189 236 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 152 152 153 154 153 154 155 153 150 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 158 160 159 158 155 152 150 148 144 138 134 130 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 60 59 60 60 57 55 56 56 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 14 14 16 15 16 15 16 15 17 19 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 17 25 28 35 14 12 -15 -14 -36 -20 -24 200 MB DIV 37 47 53 47 55 82 38 20 25 29 21 47 29 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 0 2 6 15 3 8 1 4 3 LAND (KM) 1102 1013 944 916 757 588 513 234 153 301 391 545 688 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.6 18.0 19.8 21.5 23.2 24.7 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 49.3 51.4 53.3 55.2 58.3 61.2 63.5 65.5 67.5 69.5 70.7 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 19 17 15 14 13 13 13 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 55 69 66 74 78 26 77 65 77 68 39 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 5. 7. 5. 8. 10. 15. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/08/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/08/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/08/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)