* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/08/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 78 77 73 67 59 43 26 22 20 18 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 78 77 73 67 59 43 26 22 20 18 V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 81 80 79 75 67 56 48 41 39 41 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 7 2 7 15 23 34 69 62 54 39 29 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 6 3 5 14 11 8 12 0 7 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 313 273 228 189 201 222 224 237 227 221 229 207 N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.2 26.9 24.1 20.7 19.1 14.6 13.5 13.0 12.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 127 129 127 105 90 85 76 72 70 70 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 110 110 113 111 96 86 81 74 69 67 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.3 -50.0 -48.6 -47.7 -46.8 -47.4 -49.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 62 64 64 47 42 37 49 55 65 72 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 29 30 33 33 34 35 39 36 25 28 29 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 11 5 -11 -14 42 157 184 201 292 246 226 N/A 200 MB DIV 28 17 34 38 96 74 57 49 35 29 52 52 N/A 700-850 TADV 21 23 14 8 0 0 -73 -54 -102 -86 -47 -29 N/A LAND (KM) 591 562 559 556 481 447 400 825 1401 790 614 298 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.3 35.5 36.9 38.3 40.7 43.1 46.6 51.0 54.8 57.6 59.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.2 70.0 69.7 68.3 66.9 61.6 53.0 42.0 30.5 22.1 17.3 9.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 18 20 29 39 43 38 25 20 22 N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 7 10 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -22. -28. -34. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 2. -8. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -21. -37. -54. -58. -60. -62. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/08/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/08/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/08/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 6( 18) 4( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)