* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/08/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 37 39 44 47 52 51 56 61 64 66 V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 37 39 44 47 52 51 56 61 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 35 35 36 38 39 40 44 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 16 9 10 13 14 13 11 9 16 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 10 7 4 3 5 4 4 -4 -2 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 221 212 210 224 212 244 256 231 277 277 254 253 287 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 156 157 156 155 154 152 150 149 148 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 162 161 160 161 158 154 148 144 141 136 131 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 59 57 61 58 59 54 56 52 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 16 17 15 16 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 35 35 32 35 6 9 -7 -8 -33 -24 -33 200 MB DIV 55 54 50 59 67 64 26 43 28 22 39 24 21 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 0 0 0 5 6 3 -1 -5 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 911 869 821 682 566 518 310 31 122 196 422 556 585 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.4 17.0 18.3 19.6 21.3 23.6 25.0 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.2 52.1 54.0 55.6 57.2 60.2 63.1 65.4 67.3 69.1 70.8 72.2 73.5 STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 17 16 16 16 15 12 11 13 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 62 68 74 83 89 77 76 35 62 61 49 34 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):269/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 844 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -1. 4. 7. 12. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/08/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/08/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/08/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)