* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/08/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 75 77 77 72 65 54 36 24 25 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 75 77 77 72 65 54 36 24 25 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 73 73 73 69 61 52 44 39 38 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 9 13 10 20 48 60 56 40 35 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 0 4 16 14 13 14 9 3 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 245 116 202 206 198 221 225 229 224 228 222 222 220 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.3 22.9 17.5 17.5 14.0 13.4 11.7 12.1 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 130 131 121 99 81 81 76 74 69 62 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 113 114 108 92 78 78 74 72 67 60 60 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -49.9 -49.7 -48.8 -48.3 -47.1 -47.0 -46.5 -46.3 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 61 60 58 53 48 40 41 47 51 65 70 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 38 32 26 33 31 26 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 -5 -9 -2 106 161 157 190 252 268 270 171 200 MB DIV 27 45 51 112 141 40 62 44 18 34 39 46 14 700-850 TADV 20 2 4 -8 8 -40 -146 -19 -161 -7 -3 -12 -55 LAND (KM) 559 615 566 519 450 471 499 1202 1002 407 266 463 355 LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.6 36.9 38.2 39.5 41.8 44.5 47.8 52.2 56.6 60.9 62.3 61.4 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 69.1 68.1 66.4 64.6 57.7 47.5 36.7 25.0 14.5 5.1 1.5 2.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 19 24 34 40 42 41 35 21 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 17 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 14 CX,CY: 1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -13. -20. -25. -29. -33. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. -1. -6. -1. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 2. -3. -10. -21. -39. -51. -50. -56. -61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/08/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/08/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/08/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 6( 15) 4( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)