* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/08/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 32 35 41 46 52 58 63 69 75 76 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 32 35 41 46 52 58 63 69 75 76 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 29 29 30 32 34 37 40 46 54 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 8 4 4 11 15 8 5 5 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 3 4 7 5 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 214 215 217 200 263 249 230 253 269 234 217 203 236 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 156 157 157 157 155 154 151 150 148 146 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 160 162 163 161 157 152 149 144 142 135 128 121 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.7 -50.4 -50.4 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 57 60 62 59 61 59 57 55 55 55 51 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 17 18 17 17 17 19 19 20 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 19 32 34 38 48 29 16 -1 4 -8 -8 -21 -14 200 MB DIV 52 54 66 91 100 53 49 38 48 32 42 20 70 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 0 -2 5 17 13 10 2 2 1 7 LAND (KM) 856 851 707 577 483 502 257 90 205 240 391 445 518 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.4 15.3 17.3 19.1 20.5 21.9 23.6 24.8 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.5 55.2 56.9 58.5 61.5 63.5 65.4 67.7 70.2 72.8 74.2 74.8 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 16 16 14 13 13 13 14 12 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 70 70 82 91 90 77 79 71 69 63 51 57 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 815 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. 0. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 34. 40. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/08/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/08/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/08/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)