* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/08/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 70 74 76 82 81 83 81 79 75 71 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 70 74 76 82 81 83 81 79 75 71 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 73 77 81 88 92 94 94 94 94 93 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 6 7 7 5 6 7 6 8 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -1 0 1 2 1 2 2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 77 106 103 106 129 148 146 192 141 122 122 141 146 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 163 167 168 168 167 167 167 167 167 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 141 146 149 153 157 155 155 155 155 152 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 4 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 52 54 53 51 46 42 44 39 40 38 36 36 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 18 22 19 24 25 27 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 27 19 20 10 20 2 26 22 42 30 45 200 MB DIV 27 42 43 41 37 41 58 4 24 -15 7 -23 12 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 2 3 5 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 122 138 148 179 198 274 333 374 354 336 329 306 275 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.4 22.5 22.8 23.2 23.4 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.2 92.1 92.2 92.3 92.9 93.3 93.6 93.9 94.2 94.5 94.8 95.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 36 41 41 61 67 70 72 75 70 63 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 1. 5. 5. 7. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 22. 21. 23. 21. 19. 15. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/08/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/08/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/08/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)