* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 39 43 50 59 64 70 75 81 85 87 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 39 43 50 59 64 70 75 81 85 87 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 34 36 40 46 50 54 59 65 72 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 1 2 9 5 9 11 10 4 6 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 3 3 9 5 2 3 2 -1 4 4 3 3 SHEAR DIR 209 209 181 43 253 256 238 276 276 286 231 251 211 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 161 159 159 156 156 153 150 148 146 147 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 162 167 166 163 154 151 149 143 136 132 132 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 63 61 62 63 61 61 59 56 54 57 59 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 16 16 17 16 19 18 19 20 21 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 29 33 41 58 53 16 19 0 21 0 5 18 54 200 MB DIV 31 68 83 110 99 32 33 22 28 40 56 53 54 700-850 TADV -2 2 3 -2 -3 7 12 15 3 8 0 6 0 LAND (KM) 820 683 540 446 422 403 172 55 127 266 389 438 436 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 14.0 14.5 16.2 17.5 19.0 20.7 22.2 23.4 24.7 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 53.7 55.3 56.8 58.5 60.1 62.6 64.3 66.6 69.3 71.4 72.5 74.1 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 17 16 13 12 14 14 10 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 74 86 94 94 83 72 77 66 60 32 51 59 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 4. 8. 15. 24. 29. 35. 40. 46. 50. 52. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/09/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)