* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/09/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 67 70 72 76 79 75 69 58 53 49 45 V (KT) LAND 60 63 67 70 72 76 79 75 69 58 53 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 70 74 81 87 89 90 89 87 84 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 2 5 9 5 8 14 19 8 12 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -6 -5 -3 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 101 111 72 200 220 227 176 201 221 239 212 248 260 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 160 163 165 168 168 167 167 167 167 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 142 145 147 153 156 156 156 155 154 152 151 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -50.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 7 4 7 4 7 5 8 5 10 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 50 51 49 56 53 59 55 50 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 18 17 19 19 15 12 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 17 18 9 2 0 -5 0 0 -9 -27 -27 200 MB DIV 36 51 49 59 58 29 38 39 46 -11 -8 -11 -17 700-850 TADV -2 2 2 -1 0 1 2 2 4 4 5 0 -3 LAND (KM) 122 133 139 179 204 280 335 371 347 331 329 316 285 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.3 20.6 21.3 21.9 22.4 22.6 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.2 92.1 92.3 92.4 93.0 93.4 93.7 94.0 94.3 94.5 94.7 95.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 33 38 42 58 64 70 75 75 70 65 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 16. 19. 15. 9. -2. -7. -11. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/09/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/09/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/09/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)