* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/09/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 46 53 57 63 65 72 74 79 80 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 46 53 56 62 63 70 72 77 78 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 44 46 49 52 56 63 69 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 4 13 11 6 18 11 12 5 15 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 10 4 1 5 0 -3 -7 0 1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 233 218 333 275 296 249 255 254 279 225 247 235 213 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 157 157 156 153 149 149 147 146 144 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 167 164 159 157 154 148 141 138 134 130 127 121 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 62 61 61 61 57 56 53 57 60 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 18 16 20 20 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 29 40 51 52 35 17 -1 12 -9 9 22 52 59 200 MB DIV 62 75 99 101 56 50 34 39 55 89 52 95 65 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 1 1 12 10 7 4 4 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 663 522 426 455 520 223 22 127 238 357 386 480 485 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.9 15.6 17.1 18.7 20.3 21.9 23.1 24.1 25.3 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.5 57.3 59.0 60.4 61.7 64.0 66.5 68.6 70.4 72.2 73.9 74.8 75.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 12 11 10 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 86 94 95 79 76 83 26 66 62 53 61 52 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 3. 3. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 18. 22. 28. 30. 37. 39. 44. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/09/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/09/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/09/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)