* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/09/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 57 58 60 62 62 58 52 49 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 55 55 57 58 60 62 62 58 52 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 58 61 68 74 78 80 54 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 9 6 3 7 8 11 9 8 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 -4 -4 -3 0 0 0 2 2 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 81 346 249 250 243 226 249 224 223 216 168 180 181 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 165 169 169 169 169 170 170 169 165 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 144 148 152 159 159 159 155 155 154 148 143 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 6 4 6 5 6 5 7 7 9 10 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 51 50 52 52 57 57 55 58 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 15 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 20 16 0 9 -16 -14 -36 -48 -50 -40 -19 200 MB DIV 41 46 61 49 35 42 -1 9 9 -4 -16 -3 -2 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 12 12 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 144 161 177 217 260 326 248 151 44 -85 -259 -304 -255 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.0 21.7 21.2 20.7 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.3 92.3 92.7 93.0 93.9 94.8 95.8 97.1 98.6 100.2 101.5 102.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 5 5 5 4 6 7 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 37 40 49 56 69 70 43 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/09/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/09/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/09/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)