* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/09/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 53 57 64 65 70 74 77 80 81 81 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 53 57 64 65 70 74 77 80 81 81 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 56 59 62 65 70 75 80 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 10 11 9 17 14 13 7 7 11 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 7 2 3 1 -2 -5 -4 -2 -2 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 185 168 221 246 259 208 271 255 271 244 241 214 212 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 155 155 154 153 150 148 147 147 147 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 160 157 156 152 149 146 140 134 129 129 131 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 63 62 57 57 59 60 66 65 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 19 16 18 20 22 26 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 33 44 43 20 4 1 -15 -7 -10 8 25 57 92 200 MB DIV 87 114 99 56 31 49 27 55 64 64 105 75 88 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 0 10 13 3 7 1 -2 3 10 9 LAND (KM) 561 504 503 541 377 137 144 232 317 422 519 629 592 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.2 16.0 16.8 18.2 19.8 21.4 22.6 23.6 24.5 26.0 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.5 59.9 61.2 62.5 64.4 66.5 68.6 70.2 71.3 71.7 72.7 74.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 13 12 13 11 8 6 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 93 88 78 77 71 64 64 63 63 48 35 41 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 24. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/09/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 43% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/09/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/09/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)