* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/09/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 57 59 61 66 68 63 58 58 57 56 53 V (KT) LAND 55 55 57 59 61 66 68 63 39 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 57 59 62 70 77 82 47 33 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 9 6 4 9 3 6 3 12 14 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 -2 -1 1 0 6 0 5 -4 -7 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 58 97 201 212 192 141 201 201 151 135 145 166 172 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 166 169 169 169 169 170 168 166 164 161 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 146 150 152 156 156 155 154 153 150 143 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 4 4 8 4 9 4 10 6 12 8 700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 50 49 52 53 58 61 62 61 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 17 16 8 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 19 13 0 2 -1 -2 -12 -11 -20 -25 -24 -14 200 MB DIV 39 42 44 42 27 33 16 -8 -1 -12 -5 1 -8 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 1 2 5 -3 -1 6 4 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 177 206 235 254 275 229 136 16 -141 -282 -241 -183 -175 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 21.0 20.8 20.4 20.1 20.1 19.9 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.7 92.8 93.2 93.6 94.6 95.7 96.9 98.4 99.8 101.4 102.6 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 7 7 7 7 3 0 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 44 45 44 54 70 10 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -7. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 8. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/09/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/09/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/09/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)