* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 71 69 65 52 40 33 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 71 69 65 52 40 33 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 64 59 49 41 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 25 38 57 61 48 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 13 13 12 14 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 227 224 230 239 240 225 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 23.4 22.2 17.7 18.5 15.8 13.9 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 102 97 82 84 78 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 95 92 79 80 75 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -51.1 -51.1 -49.9 -48.8 -47.6 -46.8 -46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 46 43 44 43 49 42 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 33 34 35 37 40 38 35 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 49 126 167 176 189 257 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 69 87 62 40 37 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -17 -2 -31 -112 -22 -99 -142 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 417 453 492 374 695 1502 769 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.8 41.1 42.4 44.1 45.8 49.6 53.2 56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.6 60.3 56.0 50.1 44.1 32.4 21.6 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 35 40 46 45 41 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 23 CX,CY: 18/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -23. -30. -33. -36. -37. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -12. -15. -15. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -21. -24. -26. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -10. -23. -35. -42. -52. -58. -63. -67. -67. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/09/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 2( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)