* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/09/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 58 62 68 70 77 81 85 86 86 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 58 62 68 70 77 81 85 86 86 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 56 59 62 67 73 80 84 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 11 7 14 8 9 2 4 2 19 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 3 9 3 1 0 2 6 10 3 2 SHEAR DIR 189 208 204 222 204 250 256 276 239 276 239 218 215 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 154 154 152 150 147 147 148 147 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 156 155 153 150 148 143 138 132 130 131 132 122 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -50.9 -51.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 62 61 58 60 55 57 58 58 45 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 20 24 27 30 33 37 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 26 18 23 2 18 7 26 32 71 93 30 200 MB DIV 124 105 56 46 67 27 44 45 80 79 92 43 -13 700-850 TADV 7 2 8 10 14 17 18 5 8 8 5 7 -3 LAND (KM) 515 499 534 462 315 74 155 223 298 400 505 648 701 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.1 18.4 19.9 21.3 22.4 23.4 24.4 26.2 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.4 60.7 61.9 63.0 65.0 66.9 68.6 69.9 71.0 71.9 72.7 73.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 7 7 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 91 82 80 59 74 45 63 63 67 54 36 45 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 22. 28. 30. 37. 41. 45. 46. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/09/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 7.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/09/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/09/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)