* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 67 63 47 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 67 63 47 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 69 63 58 47 38 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 24 39 52 60 61 42 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 10 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 234 231 240 240 234 216 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 22.7 18.5 18.4 19.1 14.9 14.1 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 99 84 83 85 76 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 94 80 80 81 74 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.3 -50.3 -49.1 -48.2 -47.2 -46.2 -46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 44 43 45 46 41 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 32 35 36 39 35 34 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 115 160 179 181 208 263 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 76 71 53 23 33 29 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -20 -69 -65 -6 3 -53 -95 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 499 517 386 657 1044 1227 523 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.6 42.2 43.7 45.5 47.3 50.8 54.4 57.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.5 55.6 50.6 44.8 38.9 27.9 18.0 8.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 40 42 45 43 37 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 35 CX,CY: 33/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -18. -25. -31. -35. -38. -39. -40. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -13. -14. -17. -17. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -25. -28. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -29. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -12. -28. -39. -49. -61. -68. -76. -82. -83. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/10/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)