* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 50 54 61 69 75 80 82 88 88 86 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 50 54 61 69 75 80 82 88 88 86 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 45 47 52 56 61 69 76 82 86 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 7 12 7 1 7 3 4 11 28 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 3 3 4 4 1 6 7 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 172 217 230 224 194 244 256 306 272 296 176 214 215 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 153 152 150 150 149 152 149 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 152 151 149 145 141 138 135 133 137 137 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.0 -49.8 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 64 61 59 58 59 60 63 60 48 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 19 20 21 24 25 27 26 33 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR 34 19 22 27 30 24 28 22 33 56 79 109 101 200 MB DIV 75 55 38 80 77 34 27 35 71 71 37 60 23 700-850 TADV 7 8 7 13 15 28 9 10 10 10 5 4 -2 LAND (KM) 499 534 512 375 241 84 200 271 376 522 688 830 613 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 19.1 20.3 21.7 23.1 24.5 26.0 28.9 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 59.1 60.3 61.4 62.5 63.5 65.5 66.9 68.4 69.9 70.9 71.3 71.1 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 10 10 10 9 8 11 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 85 80 49 71 77 70 65 63 68 40 45 31 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 6. 12. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 14. 21. 29. 35. 40. 42. 48. 49. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/10/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)