* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/10/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 48 51 53 55 57 58 59 61 63 63 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 48 51 53 55 37 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 44 46 49 57 66 42 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 3 5 5 8 10 15 15 10 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 4 -3 0 1 0 -4 -6 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 139 148 80 306 301 47 129 112 124 133 122 113 110 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 165 165 167 165 166 166 166 163 164 164 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 146 147 150 149 151 152 153 147 147 147 148 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.4 -53.0 -51.8 -51.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 7 8 5 7 4 10 7 12 9 13 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 49 54 58 65 63 61 58 55 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 13 12 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 8 4 0 2 -20 -40 -44 -33 -23 -10 6 200 MB DIV 22 34 47 52 58 8 7 -15 -4 0 6 0 19 700-850 TADV 2 4 4 3 0 -4 15 12 5 5 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 171 179 187 196 178 116 20 -114 -263 -190 -138 -95 -37 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.5 18.3 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.2 93.5 93.9 94.3 95.3 96.3 97.6 99.0 100.1 100.5 100.9 101.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 4 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 30 34 39 45 15 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/10/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/10/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/10/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)