* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/10/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 64 58 52 44 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 64 58 52 44 37 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 61 56 51 42 37 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 47 55 61 58 49 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 12 8 8 1 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 230 242 243 243 232 222 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.7 17.3 18.4 17.6 15.4 14.0 12.9 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 81 83 82 78 75 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 78 80 78 75 73 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -49.1 -48.0 -47.6 -46.6 -45.8 -44.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 46 50 45 59 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 33 35 37 38 36 35 37 33 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 131 165 167 165 174 248 322 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 53 26 14 26 17 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -92 -73 -20 3 -61 -126 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 470 360 713 1152 1468 700 286 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.6 44.4 46.1 48.0 49.9 53.9 58.6 61.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.1 49.9 43.7 37.4 31.0 20.7 10.5 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 42 48 47 47 42 37 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 31 CX,CY: 27/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -24. -30. -33. -35. -36. -37. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -29. -32. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -17. -26. -33. -47. -58. -65. -72. -78. -80. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/10/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/10/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/10/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)