* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/10/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 46 48 55 61 69 75 79 83 87 83 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 46 48 55 61 69 75 79 83 87 83 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 46 48 51 57 64 72 76 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 13 12 7 9 4 7 5 20 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 5 8 5 -2 2 0 1 -2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 235 227 232 209 242 231 244 242 224 191 205 184 216 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.8 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 155 154 152 151 151 151 154 150 137 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 152 150 151 149 143 139 137 135 139 136 123 116 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.1 -51.3 -50.0 -50.1 -48.8 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 59 56 58 55 56 60 65 56 55 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 19 20 23 23 26 28 28 33 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 27 26 17 24 13 20 32 65 81 103 105 200 MB DIV 33 27 71 69 46 62 38 68 79 95 87 163 103 700-850 TADV 8 5 10 13 23 25 7 5 2 12 18 8 -9 LAND (KM) 538 557 417 280 161 166 295 373 497 713 876 716 707 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 20.0 21.5 22.9 24.2 26.2 29.0 32.2 35.7 LONG(DEG W) 59.8 60.9 62.0 63.1 64.2 66.1 67.6 68.8 69.9 70.4 70.2 69.2 67.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 9 12 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 78 58 75 74 72 65 69 75 54 40 26 12 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 14. 19. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 21. 29. 35. 39. 43. 47. 43. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/10/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/10/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/10/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)