* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL122011 09/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 58 51 45 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 58 51 45 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 61 55 49 40 33 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 58 63 65 57 41 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 9 6 7 5 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 241 245 242 239 220 214 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.7 18.6 18.4 15.8 14.2 14.0 13.1 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 84 83 78 76 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 80 79 75 73 70 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.1 -48.0 -47.2 -47.2 -46.4 -45.7 -45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 44 47 51 42 58 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 34 35 37 38 35 35 34 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 154 169 161 174 218 264 292 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 36 -2 1 25 26 35 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -63 -73 -39 -52 -84 -75 12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 400 684 1092 1517 1092 480 246 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.6 45.6 47.6 49.6 51.6 55.0 58.3 60.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 44.4 38.2 32.2 26.2 17.2 10.0 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 43 47 46 44 38 29 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 42 CX,CY: 39/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -26. -31. -34. -37. -38. -38. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -16. -17. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. -31. -34. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. -1. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 6. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -24. -25. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -19. -25. -35. -47. -63. -74. -82. -90. -97.-100. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122011 KATIA 09/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 57.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122011 KATIA 09/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122011 KATIA 09/10/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)