* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 34 36 41 48 54 59 67 70 71 68 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 34 36 41 48 54 59 67 70 71 68 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 32 32 32 32 35 39 44 49 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 20 15 13 15 11 12 13 21 35 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 4 6 -2 -4 -2 0 3 -5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 234 233 218 220 243 219 229 231 218 197 191 180 196 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.4 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 154 154 152 152 149 150 151 154 145 133 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 150 149 145 140 134 132 134 140 131 118 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -50.8 -50.7 -49.8 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 62 62 59 58 56 53 54 56 60 60 55 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 16 18 19 21 22 25 31 34 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 11 6 6 8 0 9 22 67 79 86 85 200 MB DIV 15 45 56 65 66 44 23 63 89 78 98 111 163 700-850 TADV 7 2 8 9 18 0 -2 1 2 7 13 5 -23 LAND (KM) 501 361 232 141 145 292 359 443 546 755 745 591 631 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.1 19.8 21.4 22.8 23.7 24.7 26.6 29.8 33.0 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.2 62.4 63.5 64.7 65.8 67.5 68.9 69.8 70.5 71.0 71.2 70.2 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 8 13 16 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 66 71 77 69 66 70 73 63 40 44 22 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 13. 15. 17. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 32. 35. 36. 33. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/10/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)