* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 53 54 56 58 59 61 63 67 67 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 53 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 54 59 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 5 8 10 8 13 13 5 5 3 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 -1 0 0 1 0 -3 -5 -1 0 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 33 70 323 25 53 99 129 128 142 144 107 139 N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 166 166 164 165 165 164 164 162 162 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 149 151 151 148 149 147 145 145 143 142 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 8 6 5 7 3 10 7 13 9 14 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 53 57 56 62 65 66 61 58 58 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 12 10 7 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 8 10 15 -1 -21 -26 -29 -20 -5 5 N/A 200 MB DIV 32 28 49 22 0 8 -9 -13 -4 6 6 37 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 -5 -2 6 10 4 4 1 0 0 N/A LAND (KM) 181 151 127 86 32 -87 -177 -279 -286 -270 -242 -241 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.6 19.7 19.8 20.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.5 94.9 95.5 96.1 97.3 98.3 99.3 99.7 100.1 100.7 101.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 41 43 42 24 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 18. 22. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/10/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)