* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942011 09/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 10 6 5 7 16 24 23 26 25 25 29 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 104 111 109 169 193 200 216 231 244 248 244 244 236 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.4 24.8 24.1 23.4 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 134 129 125 115 109 102 94 87 84 82 80 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 57 58 52 49 43 38 33 30 29 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 39 30 18 12 6 6 -9 -11 -21 -25 -27 200 MB DIV 10 9 5 5 -7 -2 -7 -11 -12 -20 -8 -13 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1159 1121 1073 1035 1001 953 939 946 936 932 956 972 981 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.3 20.1 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.2 118.4 118.7 118.9 119.4 119.9 120.7 121.4 122.0 122.4 122.7 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 21 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -13. -19. -23. -28. -33. -38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942011 INVEST 09/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942011 INVEST 09/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##