* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952011 09/10/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 23 21 19 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 23 21 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 17 15 11 9 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 0 5 5 9 5 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 93 107 114 124 137 174 196 215 236 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.1 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 139 139 140 138 135 127 123 121 120 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 59 58 55 54 48 46 43 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 2 3 7 4 3 3 -1 -7 -24 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -2 1 -3 -3 5 2 0 3 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 2 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2384 2400 2415 2439 2434 2380 2303 2196 2051 1880 1719 1563 1437 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.1 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.2 132.4 132.7 132.9 133.5 134.3 135.4 136.8 138.3 139.7 141.0 142.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 3 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 30 29 25 14 12 9 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952011 INVEST 09/10/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952011 INVEST 09/10/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##