* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 45 48 57 62 69 73 73 72 70 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 45 48 57 62 69 73 73 72 70 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 41 43 46 51 57 62 66 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 16 16 14 12 9 13 11 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 8 3 -2 2 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 226 241 263 242 267 232 246 204 186 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 154 153 153 152 152 153 154 143 132 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 146 144 143 140 137 135 135 139 130 119 121 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.1 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 58 58 56 59 62 68 62 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 17 20 17 22 23 27 30 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 13 4 3 4 0 8 12 58 85 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 71 56 72 76 31 52 57 90 63 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 13 24 24 1 1 1 8 15 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 401 295 214 198 230 368 402 502 626 845 744 657 566 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.9 23.0 24.2 25.4 27.4 30.4 33.9 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.9 63.8 64.6 65.4 67.0 68.3 69.4 70.3 70.7 70.5 69.0 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 12 17 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 75 61 67 72 62 74 79 60 40 45 16 19 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 6. 7. 10. 13. 12. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 22. 29. 33. 33. 32. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/10/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/10/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)