* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/10/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 61 63 65 68 70 72 72 73 72 71 69 V (KT) LAND 55 59 61 63 65 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 71 76 49 33 29 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 2 7 9 7 12 13 15 10 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 2 -2 -2 -4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 16 11 42 85 119 130 133 144 110 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 165 165 166 166 166 165 161 162 161 161 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 149 149 150 151 150 147 142 143 142 141 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 6 5 7 8 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 59 60 62 65 62 63 61 62 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 7 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 4 14 10 -15 -22 -25 -21 -8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 25 33 20 19 -1 -3 -9 16 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 -2 -7 4 9 9 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 182 153 110 65 20 -99 -213 -277 -258 -249 -209 -216 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.8 95.3 95.8 96.3 97.5 98.7 99.7 100.0 100.3 100.8 101.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 1 2 1 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 40 41 40 15 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. 17. 16. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/10/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/10/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/10/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)