* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 44 47 53 62 69 76 80 83 80 71 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 44 47 53 62 69 76 80 83 80 71 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 41 41 42 45 50 57 63 67 68 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 14 14 11 10 8 11 18 25 38 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 3 0 -1 3 5 7 3 1 8 0 SHEAR DIR 226 242 261 231 240 264 233 220 180 179 195 201 208 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.1 27.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 154 153 152 152 153 155 151 141 136 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 145 144 142 137 136 136 138 135 127 124 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 2 700-500 MB RH 62 58 59 57 53 55 58 62 60 53 43 44 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 20 21 21 24 28 31 33 36 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 7 8 7 0 21 35 78 102 84 93 96 200 MB DIV 85 44 51 77 58 47 54 71 70 93 117 55 16 700-850 TADV 8 13 21 23 15 4 5 6 13 10 7 -7 -60 LAND (KM) 337 264 236 255 312 402 451 561 729 929 790 787 470 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.4 23.4 24.7 26.3 28.6 31.5 35.3 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.3 64.1 64.9 65.7 67.2 68.1 69.1 70.0 69.9 68.8 66.5 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 7 7 8 10 13 18 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 49 78 77 67 70 76 76 57 37 32 11 24 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 16. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 22. 29. 36. 40. 43. 40. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/11/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/11/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)