* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/11/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 64 67 70 72 73 75 75 75 76 75 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 64 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 71 60 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 2 5 9 13 12 5 6 4 3 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 4 3 0 -5 -1 4 2 5 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 354 27 25 60 115 131 139 144 136 117 134 142 N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 165 165 166 166 166 163 161 162 161 161 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 149 149 150 151 150 145 141 143 142 141 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 8 4 10 7 12 9 13 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 62 62 63 62 62 61 61 62 65 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -9 0 0 -14 -27 -28 -24 -11 -8 4 8 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 13 6 7 0 -9 -3 8 13 2 17 22 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 6 12 9 6 5 2 2 0 0 N/A LAND (KM) 165 120 65 20 -25 -144 -259 -246 -227 -224 -186 -202 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.7 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.3 95.8 96.3 96.8 98.0 99.2 100.2 100.5 100.7 101.2 101.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 1 2 1 1 N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 42 40 15 59 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 20. 20. 21. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/11/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/11/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/11/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)