* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 53 60 65 71 75 82 82 76 64 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 53 60 65 71 75 82 82 76 64 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 48 49 51 54 59 65 71 73 71 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 15 19 24 12 13 5 12 24 30 49 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 -1 -8 0 1 7 4 0 0 7 5 SHEAR DIR 246 273 251 249 285 257 271 235 204 176 190 190 198 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.6 27.6 28.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 153 153 152 153 156 148 135 141 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 143 141 140 138 135 136 141 135 122 125 98 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 4 1 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 56 56 58 61 64 63 54 46 41 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 20 21 20 21 22 25 26 32 34 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 14 12 20 15 8 20 26 53 75 81 83 91 71 200 MB DIV 43 65 83 56 52 53 45 83 100 134 91 81 16 700-850 TADV 13 25 31 15 6 9 3 15 24 18 -6 -19 -14 LAND (KM) 255 210 214 247 311 396 432 560 788 874 729 662 513 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 22.5 23.4 24.7 26.8 29.8 33.6 37.1 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.0 64.7 65.4 66.1 67.5 68.6 69.2 69.6 69.3 68.3 65.5 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 9 12 17 20 21 22 HEAT CONTENT 71 71 72 63 72 75 75 56 35 23 16 28 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 13. 14. 13. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 15. 20. 26. 30. 37. 37. 31. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/11/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/11/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)