* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/11/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 60 61 63 65 67 68 69 70 70 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 44 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 46 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 4 4 6 12 13 9 6 9 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 5 1 0 0 -2 1 5 1 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 41 92 135 129 143 136 169 130 156 128 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 164 166 166 163 162 162 162 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 149 151 153 152 147 143 143 144 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 9 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 62 62 64 61 63 59 56 61 62 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -2 0 -11 -23 -30 -19 -28 -11 -5 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 14 14 5 -11 -11 2 22 -3 4 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 4 13 7 11 4 5 2 6 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 110 59 8 -57 -123 -253 -227 -206 -188 -166 -177 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.8 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.8 96.3 97.0 97.7 99.2 100.5 101.0 101.4 102.0 102.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 7 4 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 34 8 57 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/11/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/11/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/11/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)