* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 61 65 69 74 78 77 81 79 75 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 61 65 69 74 78 77 81 79 75 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 57 58 59 62 66 71 75 76 75 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 15 22 22 16 18 11 12 15 25 20 23 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 0 -2 0 0 5 3 0 -3 1 18 20 SHEAR DIR 273 265 270 286 298 273 281 240 209 200 207 204 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.2 27.6 25.4 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 152 152 153 155 155 143 137 116 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 142 140 138 135 137 140 140 132 128 108 76 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 7 4 0 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 58 55 60 66 70 62 52 51 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 19 20 19 19 19 20 23 25 25 30 32 38 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 15 3 -3 21 29 56 77 63 49 84 30 200 MB DIV 40 68 60 54 65 36 64 62 110 90 124 154 88 700-850 TADV 21 30 17 8 3 0 4 14 17 17 -2 18 38 LAND (KM) 187 169 213 277 344 379 458 645 895 808 805 522 205 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.5 23.7 25.5 27.8 31.1 35.2 40.0 44.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.9 65.7 66.3 66.9 67.8 68.8 69.5 69.9 68.9 66.3 61.3 54.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 8 8 6 9 11 14 20 27 34 35 HEAT CONTENT 67 70 63 70 75 79 71 48 42 13 25 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 7. 12. 13. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 19. 24. 28. 27. 31. 29. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/11/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/11/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)