* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NATE AL152011 09/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 35 35 39 43 48 52 57 62 66 68 V (KT) LAND 40 33 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 33 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 2 6 8 8 7 6 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 3 3 0 0 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 61 118 101 125 144 149 182 146 193 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 166 166 166 165 162 162 162 162 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 150 151 151 150 148 142 144 143 142 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 5 4 10 6 13 9 14 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 59 57 57 54 51 52 52 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -12 -17 -26 -38 -33 -28 -24 -17 0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 0 -21 -26 -28 -12 -5 -6 9 20 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 4 13 6 10 4 3 2 4 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 33 -26 -86 -147 -209 -288 -257 -235 -213 -222 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.4 97.0 97.6 98.3 98.9 100.1 100.6 101.0 101.7 102.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 4 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 59 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -1. 3. 8. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152011 NATE 09/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152011 NATE 09/11/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152011 NATE 09/11/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)