* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952011 09/11/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 5 6 7 11 12 12 17 21 28 27 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 7 7 7 9 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 SHEAR DIR 104 105 128 178 218 251 259 261 255 263 270 268 268 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 141 141 138 134 127 125 124 121 119 117 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 51 54 50 50 45 43 42 39 38 34 37 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -14 -14 -13 -16 -16 -13 -24 -18 -12 6 27 37 200 MB DIV -20 -19 -7 -6 -5 -4 -12 1 -4 10 11 3 28 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 4 9 11 17 LAND (KM) 2462 2444 2412 2360 2309 2144 1956 1731 1527 1332 1163 1000 848 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.0 133.3 133.9 134.4 136.0 137.8 139.8 141.6 143.3 144.7 146.0 147.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 16 14 12 11 8 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -27. -30. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952011 INVEST 09/11/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952011 INVEST 09/11/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##