* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/11/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 50 54 58 63 70 75 72 65 47 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 50 54 58 63 70 75 72 65 47 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 50 52 56 61 66 67 62 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 25 17 11 15 9 15 21 22 35 63 85 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 3 6 6 1 0 0 1 6 5 6 SHEAR DIR 280 278 286 283 282 293 289 244 197 197 184 203 212 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.8 27.8 27.9 21.7 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 150 149 151 156 151 138 141 93 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 139 137 135 134 137 143 139 125 131 88 73 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -50.3 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 5 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 60 62 66 66 65 61 53 46 35 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 16 20 17 18 20 20 21 26 29 28 29 21 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 7 6 19 27 44 68 91 69 83 92 157 200 MB DIV 69 58 57 55 83 53 78 82 120 83 141 34 10 700-850 TADV 37 18 20 13 15 1 15 20 36 18 -10 -106 -174 LAND (KM) 157 176 233 283 301 318 435 697 922 783 715 363 8 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.3 23.6 26.0 29.0 32.7 36.5 41.9 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.7 66.4 67.0 67.5 68.6 69.5 69.8 69.5 68.1 65.5 60.5 53.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 7 9 13 17 20 28 36 38 HEAT CONTENT 70 65 67 72 74 70 68 43 28 16 31 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 6. 6. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 13. 20. 25. 22. 15. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/11/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/11/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/11/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)