* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/12/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 51 52 55 59 66 72 75 71 56 45 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 51 52 55 59 66 72 75 71 56 44 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 51 55 60 66 70 69 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 20 15 19 16 13 13 23 28 56 85 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 2 0 -1 -3 -1 3 2 6 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 278 293 297 281 275 311 293 245 192 191 192 206 211 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.3 27.6 25.5 15.4 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 151 151 155 155 144 137 117 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 139 137 136 135 140 141 133 128 110 75 72 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -50.4 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 61 63 65 64 65 53 51 42 39 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 17 17 17 16 19 22 24 25 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR 21 7 2 15 26 16 58 61 48 48 70 120 184 200 MB DIV 54 62 61 89 69 76 71 94 129 142 86 18 25 700-850 TADV 16 11 8 11 -1 1 13 19 17 -24 -40 -262 -309 LAND (KM) 171 227 288 315 334 421 601 890 837 819 480 79 568 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.4 25.1 27.7 30.9 35.1 40.0 46.1 52.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 66.3 66.9 67.5 68.1 69.0 69.5 69.3 68.7 66.2 62.1 55.5 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 8 10 15 20 27 34 41 41 HEAT CONTENT 65 66 72 75 75 73 52 38 14 24 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -14. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 22. 25. 21. 6. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/12/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/12/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/12/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)