* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/12/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 51 52 57 62 67 71 75 69 57 48 V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 51 52 57 62 67 71 75 69 57 48 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 52 55 59 63 67 61 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 17 19 17 14 16 18 22 36 66 85 91 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 1 2 4 -1 0 -4 0 5 -7 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 290 291 289 272 274 274 234 216 203 193 209 224 231 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.6 27.8 27.6 19.4 13.0 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 152 153 156 148 138 138 84 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 139 137 136 138 142 135 127 129 80 71 71 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.1 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 62 61 66 64 65 57 57 51 53 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 18 20 21 22 26 26 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 7 13 -1 36 47 52 27 30 69 121 115 200 MB DIV 43 49 90 76 57 69 96 109 101 163 94 50 26 700-850 TADV 5 10 8 -2 -2 14 27 15 -13 -29 -112 -247 -291 LAND (KM) 222 300 356 382 412 541 794 945 856 620 311 109 749 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.1 24.5 26.8 29.8 33.5 38.1 43.4 48.0 51.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.0 66.6 67.2 67.8 68.3 69.0 69.0 68.3 66.9 63.6 58.2 51.4 43.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 10 13 18 23 30 33 32 31 HEAT CONTENT 65 72 78 79 79 59 33 23 17 36 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 8. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 19. 7. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/12/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/12/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/12/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)