* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/12/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 45 49 53 57 63 64 59 50 45 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 45 49 53 57 63 64 59 50 45 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 42 42 43 46 49 52 54 51 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 17 14 15 16 13 13 25 34 47 57 74 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 9 8 1 0 0 -3 -4 3 1 5 12 SHEAR DIR 298 295 264 263 296 244 239 197 195 196 207 216 215 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.4 27.2 27.5 26.8 19.4 12.7 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 152 151 154 144 130 135 128 84 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 138 136 134 140 132 118 123 118 80 72 71 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -50.3 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 59 62 61 60 64 61 56 52 46 45 45 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 15 17 17 19 19 23 26 25 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR 0 14 25 8 9 51 48 43 39 40 106 220 245 200 MB DIV 53 86 78 62 58 58 99 110 100 125 89 72 69 700-850 TADV 7 11 2 3 6 8 17 6 -19 -25 -117 -271 -369 LAND (KM) 233 272 299 323 365 534 834 872 829 551 319 176 892 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.4 22.9 24.5 27.2 30.5 34.4 38.8 43.5 48.3 52.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.6 68.1 68.6 69.1 69.5 69.4 68.6 66.9 63.4 57.9 50.6 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 11 15 19 23 29 33 36 35 HEAT CONTENT 70 73 72 71 74 57 38 17 23 25 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 6. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. 0. 4. 8. 12. 18. 19. 14. 5. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/12/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/12/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/12/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)