* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/12/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 43 45 49 55 61 67 64 60 50 39 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 43 45 49 55 61 67 64 60 50 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 43 45 48 51 55 55 50 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 17 22 11 14 15 25 37 48 56 57 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 4 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 7 7 10 -1 SHEAR DIR 297 276 276 285 298 248 199 207 212 213 226 237 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.1 27.2 27.6 23.2 15.6 13.8 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 153 152 140 131 137 100 77 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 139 141 139 136 128 122 129 93 75 74 72 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -51.9 -50.8 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 6 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 64 60 63 66 67 67 61 55 57 52 58 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 14 16 19 21 20 21 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 30 18 16 35 41 46 23 22 43 113 179 153 200 MB DIV 76 78 51 54 69 102 103 95 134 94 116 103 85 700-850 TADV 6 -2 1 3 1 7 7 5 -23 -62 -135 -64 -8 LAND (KM) 255 267 277 350 441 646 901 858 747 438 100 695 1487 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.7 23.6 25.5 27.8 31.7 36.5 41.3 45.8 51.1 56.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 67.7 68.3 68.7 69.1 69.4 69.3 67.8 64.9 60.1 53.5 44.1 33.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 10 16 23 29 32 37 42 42 HEAT CONTENT 71 72 69 74 71 48 38 14 29 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 2. 3. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 10. 16. 22. 19. 15. 5. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/12/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/12/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/12/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)