* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/13/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 48 51 57 64 71 75 71 57 46 46 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 48 51 57 64 71 75 71 57 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 47 50 53 57 61 61 51 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 23 18 17 11 16 25 38 54 65 63 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 7 8 5 18 6 SHEAR DIR 290 289 286 298 276 258 208 200 195 204 215 219 213 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.7 27.3 27.4 27.6 22.1 13.0 12.9 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 153 153 148 130 133 138 96 75 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 138 137 140 135 118 121 129 91 73 70 67 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -50.6 -48.8 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 65 67 69 62 56 48 39 33 33 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 13 15 17 17 19 22 24 24 16 12 22 850 MB ENV VOR 36 29 39 57 63 33 35 19 46 73 144 293 274 200 MB DIV 73 38 54 80 89 111 111 105 114 64 50 76 83 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 8 12 15 11 -6 -22 -47 -206 -94 -68 LAND (KM) 282 306 337 389 453 718 985 834 719 393 217 861 1379 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.7 22.1 22.9 23.6 26.1 29.0 32.5 36.7 42.0 47.9 51.9 54.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 67.7 67.9 68.3 68.6 68.9 68.6 67.6 65.1 59.1 49.9 42.0 35.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 10 13 16 20 29 40 38 28 23 HEAT CONTENT 73 75 76 79 74 36 30 16 32 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. -4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 3. 6. 12. 19. 26. 30. 26. 12. 1. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/13/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/13/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/13/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)