* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/13/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 49 52 59 63 70 73 68 61 55 61 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 49 52 59 63 70 73 68 61 55 61 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 48 51 53 57 60 57 51 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 22 17 12 15 9 20 19 31 51 51 60 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -1 3 4 1 1 -1 4 7 4 14 15 3 SHEAR DIR 286 286 286 268 257 228 221 202 209 221 229 224 205 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.1 27.1 27.6 25.6 16.5 13.5 10.5 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 152 140 129 137 118 79 75 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 139 139 139 128 118 127 111 77 72 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -50.9 -48.8 -46.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 64 68 66 67 60 54 53 46 49 52 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 14 14 16 19 17 20 22 20 17 17 27 850 MB ENV VOR 40 42 61 66 42 40 8 -8 36 75 200 248 331 200 MB DIV 45 46 59 69 96 120 82 110 74 70 122 112 105 700-850 TADV 2 5 8 7 12 16 10 2 -49 -93 -152 -99 -28 LAND (KM) 286 334 382 476 577 862 889 855 547 173 619 1201 1480 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.8 24.8 27.4 30.8 34.9 39.7 45.2 51.0 54.8 56.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.0 68.3 68.6 68.8 68.8 68.1 65.8 61.3 54.3 45.2 37.7 32.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 12 15 20 26 34 40 36 23 16 HEAT CONTENT 73 76 78 72 58 34 16 23 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 1. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 18. 25. 28. 23. 16. 10. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/13/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/13/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/13/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)