* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/13/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 53 59 66 71 71 65 57 46 39 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 53 59 66 71 71 65 57 46 39 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 47 48 51 54 57 58 52 47 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 15 11 16 11 18 20 29 41 50 45 58 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 0 2 0 -3 3 4 0 2 -4 13 SHEAR DIR 294 292 275 258 225 208 212 204 215 230 242 242 218 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.2 27.6 27.4 22.7 13.3 10.7 11.3 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 148 130 136 135 98 75 72 68 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 139 139 136 120 125 125 92 73 71 66 62 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 69 69 68 69 65 55 48 50 46 50 44 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 14 16 15 17 19 20 21 19 16 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 46 66 72 46 33 26 -10 30 51 74 80 125 206 200 MB DIV 46 81 82 89 105 112 70 89 61 77 115 72 85 700-850 TADV 8 10 13 16 16 14 2 -14 -33 -29 -13 -23 -41 LAND (KM) 318 384 460 579 701 998 875 698 453 224 1052 1461 1300 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.8 25.9 29.1 33.2 37.4 42.0 47.6 53.9 57.7 58.6 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 68.2 68.4 68.5 68.6 68.3 66.8 63.5 57.7 49.8 40.0 32.4 29.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 12 13 19 23 29 36 42 36 19 9 HEAT CONTENT 75 78 75 60 38 29 16 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 21. 26. 26. 20. 12. 1. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/13/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/13/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/13/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)