* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/13/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 57 64 71 77 75 84 71 54 44 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 57 64 71 77 75 84 71 54 44 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 49 51 54 58 60 57 48 43 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 15 13 12 20 20 30 56 61 55 48 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 3 0 4 5 11 1 6 7 2 SHEAR DIR 308 278 259 253 213 215 208 228 230 222 241 251 226 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.0 27.6 25.5 17.2 12.8 14.1 12.2 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 150 142 128 137 117 79 71 71 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 142 138 131 119 129 110 75 69 68 66 66 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -51.6 -50.4 -49.3 -49.9 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 71 69 71 72 65 51 53 46 27 38 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 18 20 24 24 41 36 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR 83 82 53 39 41 12 -1 63 107 152 180 205 216 200 MB DIV 70 98 91 91 128 93 121 87 99 42 72 75 38 700-850 TADV 7 12 17 19 19 15 25 39 19 -229 -93 -53 -53 LAND (KM) 337 421 520 671 823 940 867 581 211 454 924 1371 1271 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 23.2 24.2 25.6 27.0 30.5 35.0 39.9 44.8 48.5 51.1 52.9 53.8 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 68.2 68.5 68.5 68.5 67.7 65.3 60.2 53.2 46.8 40.7 34.7 29.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 14 16 21 28 34 32 26 22 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 77 74 64 38 20 9 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -8. -12. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 23. 18. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 32. 30. 39. 26. 9. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/13/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/13/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/13/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)