* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL142011 09/14/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 59 65 75 77 84 87 75 59 51 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 59 65 75 77 80 83 71 55 47 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 49 51 54 58 58 49 46 45 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 9 13 15 20 28 46 41 38 40 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 7 2 0 0 5 6 0 9 12 7 5 SHEAR DIR 285 262 263 225 217 216 212 224 228 230 238 217 230 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.2 27.5 27.4 27.5 17.5 11.3 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 152 142 133 134 138 81 73 67 64 63 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 140 131 122 125 134 78 72 66 62 61 64 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.3 -51.9 -50.7 -48.0 -47.3 -47.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 70 70 67 59 54 58 58 50 51 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 16 18 18 23 26 35 40 32 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 86 56 44 46 37 -2 36 141 194 223 278 343 195 200 MB DIV 111 96 106 135 100 69 101 106 133 137 99 38 -21 700-850 TADV 10 15 20 21 17 15 20 23 -41 -85 -50 -39 35 LAND (KM) 411 524 651 834 986 796 641 215 464 958 1242 1406 1402 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.3 25.5 27.2 28.8 32.6 37.8 44.6 52.1 56.2 57.6 57.6 55.1 LONG(DEG W) 68.1 68.6 69.0 68.9 68.8 68.0 64.3 58.0 48.6 41.9 37.8 35.0 34.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 17 18 24 36 46 38 20 10 7 13 HEAT CONTENT 75 63 42 23 16 11 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 16. 20. 14. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 30. 32. 39. 42. 30. 14. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142011 MARIA 09/14/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142011 MARIA 09/14/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142011 MARIA 09/14/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)